Read and sharpen an idea’s Value

Open an idea and select Discovery → Value, or select a value in the Ideas list. The figure is gross revenue from the month the idea ships, made for comparing ideas. Read it with its range.

Every account linked to the idea adds what it has on record, sorted by how it earns:

Revenue counts from the month the idea ships, set by its Effort or its initiative, and stops growing about two years later, when something else would likely meet the need. 12 months and 5 years switch the period.

Linked accounts that add nothing are listed under Linked, not counted yet with what is missing. Ideas linked to the same deal share it, so it is never counted twice.

Accounts shows the number as the sum it is. Each account is one row, read left to right:

Every row multiplies out as read. Select a type to show only its accounts, or Needs an answer for the ones nobody has answered. Figures underlined with dashes are assumed.

Over time, in the toolbar, shows when the value lands, month by month, with each account at its close or renewal month; a ring marks one that comes before the idea ships.

Each row has a level: how much this idea decides the account’s deal or renewal. For a deal, the level sets how much of the win rests on the idea; for a renewal, how much more likely the customer is to churn at each renewal without it.

The row says who answered and when, or that the level is from your CRM, inferred from calls and tickets, or assumed, spread across all three levels.

Anyone who can edit Discovery can answer. Answers are the fastest way to a figure you can defend.

1. Make it more certain, beside the table, starts with the question that narrows the range most, such as Does this idea decide Acme’s renewal?. When the level is inferred, select what [account] said to read the customer’s words first.
2. Select Decisive, Important or Nice to have. The estimate updates in place, and a line under the number says what moved, with Undo.
3. To answer any other account, select its level in the table.

The list also names gaps in your records, each with its fix. An answer never moves another account’s figures and never changes your CRM.

The number is the expected value: what the idea brings in on average across the simulated outcomes. The rows below it add up to it, and a plan adds ideas up the same way.

The likely range holds 8 in 10 of those outcomes.

On record, beside the number, is the part with nothing assumed: amounts, odds and levels from your records or your team. When most of the figure is assumed, Value leads with the range, so a guess never reads like a record. A line under the number gives the outcome if the biggest deal closes and if not.

The rank, such as 4th highest of 31 ideas, compares expected values across your workspace. Ranges can overlap, so compare them too.

If a product earns from people, such as riders, shoppers or subscribers, set how it earns once. Select Set how it earns on an idea’s Value, or How this product earns on the product’s Overview, and choose People or Both.

For each group, add how many are active a month, what one brings in a month and how many leave each month. Add what a month of building costs, and every idea in the product is valued net of its build. Say whether revenue grows with each use, like a trip, or each person, like a subscription. In a two-sided marketplace, also add how much is lost when one person leaves, so both sides don’t claim the same trip.

Then add each way the idea earns, or one the evidence points to. A row shows the measure it moves, such as their churn going from 7.0% to 6.4%, who it reaches, and what the period counts. Open it to see the people it passes through, when the money comes, and where each figure comes from.

Most changes to what people do don’t move their measure. Published experiments put it between 1 in 10 and 1 in 3, so Value counts a gain at 1 in 3. That’s why the low end of the range is often near nothing. A reaction against you, like more people leaving after a price rise, counts at the same chance, in the same futures as the gain. Until a cost is weighed, the number says it’s before costs. How it adds up, beside the number, shows each way it earns stepping to it.

If you ran a test, select Record a test. A test with a group that didn’t get the change moves the 1 in 3 by what it found. A clear gain with enough people makes it near certain, and a clear null makes it unlikely. Too few people leave it where it was. Before you test, the page says how many people a test would need. A pilot without that group moves the size only, at half the weight.

Every figure starts on a typical range, drawn as an outline. Answer next, under the number, asks the one that matters most. Pick a size or type a range, say what it’s based on, and save. The page shows who said it and why.

Could it cost? asks about the usual downside, such as fewer people staying after a price rise. Weigh it so the number is the net, or rule it out and say why. Each row also says what to Watch and when. Once it ships, Record what happened.